Pita Limjaroenrat: The Amazing Thai
Source: Pita Limjaroenrat is a charismatic young Harvard grad who wants to be Thailand's next PM - ABC News
The Amazing Thailand campaign has thus far been a successful marketing blitz. Launched in late 2021, the campaign aimed at rebooting the badly bruised and battered tourism industry, thanks, or no thanks, to the great lockdown that was the pandemic.
The campaign did not disappoint. Tourism arrivals hit 10 million in December last year. Tourists haven't stopped coming since the country fully reopened in October. The Ministry of Tourism and Sports announced that as of April this year, tourism arrivals clocked in at 8.9 million. Projections are rosy. Thailand hopes to welcome anywhere between 25-30 million this year. Amazing indeed, by any measure or stretch of the imagination.
But the other better campaign is Pita Limjaroenrat's electoral bid for prime minister. This amazing Thai nicknamed Tim, all of 42 years old, was catapulted to the center stage of Thailand's politics on Sunday. Clean-shaven, donned in a white shirt as though unstained by the polarizing politics of the red shirts and yellow shirts of yesteryears, Mr. Pita may have, wittingly or unwittingly, tapped into a reservoir of political symbolism that signifies a move forward and away from the polarizing color-coded politics of the past. So very much like his political party's name, Move Forward. A Harvard graduate with oozing charisma and soap opera looks, a single Dad eating ice cream with his daughter on the campaign trail, he cut a rockstar figure, a political heartthrob.
He spearheaded a massive wave of orange-clad voters who propelled him to victory and pulled off what would once have been unimaginable just by the sheer force of campaigning on a progressive, some would even say, a radical platform for change. Mr. Pita's victory unequivocally dethroned the military regime that ruled Thailand for nearly a decade. He vowed to end the stranglehold of monopolistic practices, demilitarize Thai politics, and table controversial proposals for reforming lese-majeste laws in Parliament. His campaign slogan, "demilitarize, demonopolize, and decentralize," was a campaign message that political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University described as "earth-shaking in Thailand." Mr. Pita could very well have added a fourth D: “democratize.”
His victory comes amidst the highest voter turnout in all of Thailand's election history. Bloomberg reported that thirty-nine million eligible voters cast their ballot, or 75.2%, to choose the 500 members of the lower house. An estimated fourteen million voters chose Pita Limjaroenrat. Millennials and Gen Z voters, numbering some three million, with some of them voting for the first time, constitute his electoral base. They all trooped to the polling stations last Sunday, determined to trounce the military. And trounce they did. The United Thai Nation Party of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-Cha placed fourth in a multiparty contest, garnering only 36 seats. The other military-backed party Palang Pracharat claimed 40 seats.
Against the dismal performance of the two military-backed parties was Mr. Pita's Move Forward Party which won 151 constituency and party-list seats. "A stunning victory," reported Al Jazeera. "A game changer," according to CNN. "A shock election win," echoed the South China Morning Post. "A no mean achievement in a country that has experienced at least a dozen successful coups," reported the BBC. In the aftermath of his astounding victory, he quipped, "Sensational."
Lest I get too carried away, here are some sobering political tidbits. First, Pheu Thai's candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 36-year-old daughter of exiled billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, came in a close second to Mr. Pita, winning 141 constituency and party-list seats. Second, Pheu Thai, the latest political party reincarnation of the Shinawatra dynasty, has won every election in the country since 2001. Their base in the north remains formidable Red Shirt country even as Pita's Move Forward Party made inroads into what used to be a political firewall.
No question about his enduring influence on Thai politics, Thaksin Shinawatra is a political brand that continues to be a force to be reckoned with, even 17 years after he was forced into exile abroad, reported the New York Times. The family has produced three prime ministers: Thaksin, the patriarch; Yingluck, the sister; and Somchai Wongsawat, the brother-in-law. All three were elected but were deposed by court rulings and military coups in 2006 and 2014.
But Pheu Thai has already conceded victory to Pita Limjaroenrat and has agreed to enter coalition talks. Still, neither party will command the majority they need to hand the position of prime minister to Mr. Pita.
And there's the rub.
A 2017 constitution drafted by the military following the last coup in 2014 is the 250-seat Senate which consists of allies of the military establishment. These military-appointed senators, alongside the 500 members of the lower house, will decide the next prime minister. A party, or a coalition of parties, needs a minimum of 376 votes to elect the next leader.
At his victory rally at the Democracy Monument on Monday, a day after the elections, Mr. Pita rode in triumph at the back of a pick-up truck. Political headwinds blow in his favor. He exudes hope and youthful dynamism. Pitted against the aging images of the two "uncles" (Prayut Chan-o-Cha and Prawit Wongsuwan as Thaksin Shinawatra referred to them in a post-election interview with Reuters), both fared poorly during the elections, garnering only 76 votes between their two parties. Mr. Pita has every reason to be optimistic about his chances to become prime minister and reset his country on the path to democracy.
But he is equally aware of the pitfalls he faces. Speaking to the Washington Post on the day of his victory, he declared: "I am not worried, but I am not careless."
Beyond these immediate political wranglings is the gargantuan task ahead for the prime minister-in-waiting. His mission is cut out for him. First, Mr. Pita will have to deal with Thailand's structural challenges, chief of which is the pandemic that dealt a blow to Thailand's economy. The World Bank reported that in 2020, Thailand's economy contracted by 6.1%. Notwithstanding the arrival of millions of tourists who are a primary source of revenue, Thailand will still need to catch up with its neighbors. Its growth rate in 2023, according to the Asian Development Bank, is projected at 3.3%, way behind Vietnam (6.5%), the Philippines (6.0%), Cambodia (5.5%), and Indonesia (4.8%).
Further, poverty is its most severe challenge despite being touted as a development success story. The World Bank reported that rural poverty remains a persistent feature of Thailand's economy. The rural poor outnumber the urban poor by almost 2.3 million and are concentrated in the northeast and the southern parts of the country. They, too, will be Mr. Pita's constituency should he be privileged to ascend to the highest position in Thailand.
The quality of education, as measured by harmonized test scores, remains low even if Thailand ranks high in quantitative measures (years of schooling). Mr. Pita will need to do more for his constituents who might also wish to aspire to a Harvard education, as was his privilege to obtain.
A sizeable aging population in Thailand will require additional public spending on healthcare costs and related social welfare measures. The International Monetary Fund estimates that healthcare costs to support the aging populations will increase from 2.9% of GDP in 2019 to 4.9% of GDP in 2060. These vulnerable populations, possibly the ones who may not have voted for Mr. Pita, will need him to enact and implement policies that will benefit them.
Winning the elections on a narrative of change and hope might have been the easy part for Mr. Pita, much like the Amazing Thailand campaign to lure back tourists. But the delivery of results on the social and economic fronts in the context of democratic governance will be Mr. Pita’s foremost challenge. And if successful, his most enduring legacy.